The Iranian Threat

For the past year we have been bombarded by the media with reports about how much of a threat Iran and it's nuclear programme present to the world. While Iran claims it's nuclear ambitions are purely civil in nature, the west, and Israel, believes it is seeking to produce nuclear weapons. While this is most likely true, it is clearly meant to function as a deterrent to US regional ambitions and aggressions.

First, let's look at Iran's strategic position:


This map is the US Central Command area

It is sandwiched between an array of countries allied to the US, including two that have suffered recent US-led military invasions, one still ongoing. Here are US troop deployments in those countries as follows[1]:

Afghanistan: 109,200 personnel, not including coalition strength. Combat operations ongoing.
Azerbaijan: 11 personnel
Bahrain: 2142 personnel and the support base for the US 5th Fleet
Iraq: All US troops withdrawn 12/2011
Kuwait: I can't find anything on current US troop deployments here, but since Kuwait was the exit route for US forces from Iraq, I'm sure there are still a few there.
Qatar: 621 personnel
Oman: 33 personnel
Saudi Arabia: 274 personnel
Turkey: 1491 personnel
Turkmenistan: 5 personnel
United Arab Emirates: 151 personnel

Pakistan is a current ally of the War on Terror, and a channel for the supply of the US war in Afghanistan. It is effectively isolated, it's strategic position nothing short of precarious. It's easy to see that Iran is a threat to US domination in the Middle East, and control of the vast energy reserves, much of which resides in Iranian territory. Iran has the worlds third largest natural gas reserves and has the world's fourth largest oil reserves [2][3]. This country has been a thorn in the side of US policy ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, which overthrew the autocratic government installed by the US and British in 1953. The autocracy of Pahlavi had been installed in the US/British orchestrated coup of the democratically elected government in response to their nationalization of the Iranian oil industry, which removed control of the vast oil reserves from the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Pahlavi ruled for 26 years and was responsible for many human rights violations, most of them committed by his secret police organization, SAVAK. Iranian support in Lebanon has also been a problem for Israel and it's regional ambitions.

Over the past year the US and Israel have openly threatened Iran with military action and committed many provocations, including airspace violation by US drones[4], US naval build up in the Straights of Hormuz[5], the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists[6], and violent sabotage against Iranian nuclear facilities[7], an oil embargo by the Eurozone, and sanctions imposed on financial institutions dealing with Iran's Central Bank[8].

Iranian has responded by conducting military exercises in the Straights of Hormuz, which it threatens to forcibly close if hostilities break out, and in result effectively skyrocketing world oil prices. There have recently been attacks on Israeli diplomats abroad[9], which include a possible link to an Iranian man who blew his legs off with a hand grenade in Bangkok. Through all of this Iran has still progressed with it's nuclear programme, defying Western interests. Just today they announced they had added three thousand centrifuges, bring up the total to nine thousand[10]

If Western accusations prove true and Iran does acquire a nuclear weapon, it would surely not be used in a first strike role. Launching a nuclear weapon in an act of aggression would spell suicide for the Iranian government, it's people, and it's country. A launch would polarize the world against Iran and would surely result in a massively supported war against the regime that would end up in the virtual destruction of the country. I believe that the threat to world peace as a result of this issue lies more with the US and Israel ambitions rather than the ambitions of Iran. I do fear the effects of a strike against Iran. It's easy to see that the increase in Islamic terrorism and the declining view of Arab's towards the US and it's allies after the 2003 invasion of Iraq would surely be the case after military action against Iran, serving to turn more and more people to violent action against the US to protect their homeland and countrymen, and possibly furthering movement towards Islamic extremism.

While I do not support the Islamic Fundamentalist regime, nor do I support actions taken by it against it's citizens or the world, I also understand it's position and do not support naked acts of aggression against it by the US-led West, and I believe that without these actions and the hostility displayed against Iran, there would be no need for nuclear deterrent.